Member Contribution A Look at the B1G

[umrebelfan69]

Over the past couple of weeks, I have tried to predict the AP and CFP polls, failed miserably at that, but it was still fun to dissect it all and try to think as if I were on the committee, or if I had an AP ballot to cast. I will try to continue doing that with each passing week leading up to the post season, but in order to better understand how this can play out, I wanted to do a few deep dives into each conference. The reason for this is those automatic bids that the CFP gives to conference champions, which come with a first round bye.

First up, The Big 10. Let me start by first stressing that this is all just opinion, and also by saying I haven't sat down and read all of the B1G's rules and criteria for making the championship game, and any tie-breakers that may be in place. I really would invite @GrizzlyBuck13 to give us a more in-depth, and most assuredly a more informed opinion.

So let's start. There are truly only 4 teams in the Big 10 that have a chance to make the championship game. Those are Oregon, Indiana, Ohio State, and Penn State. Oregon and Indiana are both undefeated at 10-0 / 7-0, and Ohio State and Penn State sit at 8-1 / 5-1. Ohio State would obviously hold the tie breaker over Penn State if both were to win out.

This weekend.
Oregon vs Wisconsin. Oregon will boat race the Badgers who are on a 2 game skid. I do not see any chance of an upset here. I look for Oregon to try and embarrass Wiscy just because Lanning knows they are a weak foe. Oregon is #1 and to stay #1 you must win convincingly when playing weak opponents. Style points will be part of it this week. Oregon then has a bye week before ending the season with Washington....Which for the sake of this writing, I am going to chalk up as a win for the Ducks as well. This means that Oregon finishes its regular season at 12-0, most likely ranked #1 in both polls.

Ohio State vs Northwestern. The Buckeyes win in a cake walk. Style points will play a part in this one as well. Ryan Day needs to be careful though, by that I mean leaving starters in longer in order to get those style points can be a bad move, but with Oregon going against a weak opponent, the Buckeyes will try to keep pace with the style of victory. However if you just look at it objectively, there is no reason to. Oregon and OSU are #1 & #2 respectively, and there is no need to try and jump a spot (Or hold 1) in the grand scheme of things. The Championship game, and more importantly, the CFP are all that really matters. The former will happen just as long as both win out.

Indiana is off this weekend, preparing for their big showdown with Ohio State next weekend. As with Ohio State, if the Hoosiers just win out, they will be in the Championship game against Oregon. No doubt if they win that game against the Buckeyes, they will take over the #2 spot in the CFP, and possibly even the AP. I do not think this will happen. Let's face it, Indiana won last week against a pedestrian and reeling Michigan, only by 5 points. I think Ohio State exposes them. They will lose next weekend, before finishing up with a win over Perdue, but the damage would have been done. I think they remain in the CFP but will definitely drop to the lower part of the top 12.

Penn State vs Perdue. Its a win for the Nittany Lions, and I will just go ahead and say it, PSU will win all 3 of their remaining games. However the loss to OSU has killed their chances for the Championship game. This is where Grizzly can come in and maybe help me out, but I just do not see a path for them to get there. If OSU loses to Indiana, then the 2nd team is Indiana. If OSU beats Indiana, then OSU has that spot. The only thing I see that could change is the off chance that Oregon slips and loses to teams they should never lose to, and Indiana were to lose to both Ohio State and Perdue. This would put PSU into the B1G CG in a rematch with OSU. A couple of other unrealistic chances as well, but I am going to call it. Penn State wins out, finishes the year 11-1, doesn't play for a Big 10 championship, but is solidly in the CFP field, somewhere around the 6-8 seed.

So I did all that just to get to this point, If you are still reading......"Bless Your Heart". If not, then "Bless your heart" (It goes both ways down here in the South). I predict that the Big 10 shakes out this way. Oregon goes 12-0 and is the top seed in the Big 10 CG. Ohio State wins out, including a win over Indiana, and becomes the 2nd seed in the B1G CG at 11-1. Indiana finishes 11-1 and so does PSU.

In the championship game, I predict the winner as Ohio State. Lets face it guys, the Buckeyes should have won the first time around, but some sleep walking type play led to a 1 point loss. ONE POINT. Also, it is very hard to beat a team 2 times in a season. It doesn't happen often.

The real questions come up right then. What happens if the scenario I described comes to pass......from a CFP standpoint? I honestly dont think much of anything outside of just Ohio State and Oregon swapping places in the BRACKET seeding, and Oregon falling to somewhere around 4th or 5th in the CFP poll.

I hope yall did actually read it all, I do not claim to be an expert in football, and especially not on the Big 10, but to better understand how the CFP will shape up, I wanted to look into who the contenders are and what are their paths to being there.

Next up...... the Big 12

 

[GrizzlyBuck13]

Over the past couple of weeks, I have tried to predict the AP and CFP polls, failed miserably at that, but it was still fun to dissect it all and try to think as if I were on the committee, or if I had an AP ballot to cast. I will try to continue doing that with each passing week leading up to the post season, but in order to better understand how this can play out, I wanted to do a few deep dives into each conference. The reason for this is those automatic bids that the CFP gives to conference champions, which come with a first round bye.

First up, The Big 10. Let me start by first stressing that this is all just opinion, and also by saying I haven't sat down and read all of the B1G's rules and criteria for making the championship game, and any tie-breakers that may be in place. I really would invite @GrizzlyBuck13 to give us a more in-depth, and most assuredly a more informed opinion.

So let's start. There are truly only 4 teams in the Big 10 that have a chance to make the championship game. Those are Oregon, Indiana, Ohio State, and Penn State. Oregon and Indiana are both undefeated at 10-0 / 7-0, and Ohio State and Penn State sit at 8-1 / 5-1. Ohio State would obviously hold the tie breaker over Penn State if both were to win out.

This weekend.
Oregon vs Wisconsin. Oregon will boat race the Badgers who are on a 2 game skid. I do not see any chance of an upset here. I look for Oregon to try and embarrass Wiscy just because Lanning knows they are a weak foe. Oregon is #1 and to stay #1 you must win convincingly when playing weak opponents. Style points will be part of it this week. Oregon then has a bye week before ending the season with Washington....Which for the sake of this writing, I am going to chalk up as a win for the Ducks as well. This means that Oregon finishes its regular season at 12-0, most likely ranked #1 in both polls.

Ohio State vs Northwestern. The Buckeyes win in a cake walk. Style points will play a part in this one as well. Ryan Day needs to be careful though, by that I mean leaving starters in longer in order to get those style points can be a bad move, but with Oregon going against a weak opponent, the Buckeyes will try to keep pace with the style of victory. However if you just look at it objectively, there is no reason to. Oregon and OSU are #1 & #2 respectively, and there is no need to try and jump a spot (Or hold 1) in the grand scheme of things. The Championship game, and more importantly, the CFP are all that really matters. The former will happen just as long as both win out.

Indiana is off this weekend, preparing for their big showdown with Ohio State next weekend. As with Ohio State, if the Hoosiers just win out, they will be in the Championship game against Oregon. No doubt if they win that game against the Buckeyes, they will take over the #2 spot in the CFP, and possibly even the AP. I do not think this will happen. Let's face it, Indiana won last week against a pedestrian and reeling Michigan, only by 5 points. I think Ohio State exposes them. They will lose next weekend, before finishing up with a win over Perdue, but the damage would have been done. I think they remain in the CFP but will definitely drop to the lower part of the top 12.

Penn State vs Perdue. Its a win for the Nittany Lions, and I will just go ahead and say it, PSU will win all 3 of their remaining games. However the loss to OSU has killed their chances for the Championship game. This is where Grizzly can come in and maybe help me out, but I just do not see a path for them to get there. If OSU loses to Indiana, then the 2nd team is Indiana. If OSU beats Indiana, then OSU has that spot. The only thing I see that could change is the off chance that Oregon slips and loses to teams they should never lose to, and Indiana were to lose to both Ohio State and Perdue. This would put PSU into the B1G CG in a rematch with OSU. A couple of other unrealistic chances as well, but I am going to call it. Penn State wins out, finishes the year 11-1, doesn't play for a Big 10 championship, but is solidly in the CFP field, somewhere around the 6-8 seed.

So I did all that just to get to this point, If you are still reading......"Bless Your Heart". If not, then "Bless your heart" (It goes both ways down here in the South). I predict that the Big 10 shakes out this way. Oregon goes 12-0 and is the top seed in the Big 10 CG. Ohio State wins out, including a win over Indiana, and becomes the 2nd seed in the B1G CG at 11-1. Indiana finishes 11-1 and so does PSU.

In the championship game, I predict the winner as Ohio State. Lets face it guys, the Buckeyes should have won the first time around, but some sleep walking type play led to a 1 point loss. ONE POINT. Also, it is very hard to beat a team 2 times in a season. It doesn't happen often.

The real questions come up right then. What happens if the scenario I described comes to pass......from a CFP standpoint? I honestly dont think much of anything outside of just Ohio State and Oregon swapping places in the BRACKET seeding, and Oregon falling to somewhere around 4th or 5th in the CFP poll.

I hope yall did actually read it all, I do not claim to be an expert in football, and especially not on the Big 10, but to better understand how the CFP will shape up, I wanted to look into who the contenders are and what are their paths to being there.

Next up...... the Big 12

This looks pretty accurate. That said, I almost want OSU to be the 5th or 6th seed. As I think those seeds might have easier path to Championship game. That is all based on the current ESPN seeding structure though.

 

[Cliff]

I think it's not a big disadvantage to not be one of the 4 byes. Your team stays sharp-and 5-8 get to host a game on their home field. Who wouldn't want that? The teams getting the byes get to rest up, but they don't get an extra week prep time for the team they're playing because they don't know which of the two teams it will be. Some teams during the season come in after having a week off and play the best football they've played all year (i.e. Alabama), some come and play like they're playing the season opener (i.e. LSU). Barring injuries, I think it would be much better to build momentum by playing in the first round. Just my opinion.

 

[umrebelfan69]

I think it's not a big disadvantage to not be one of the 4 byes. Your team stays sharp-and 5-8 get to host a game on their home field. Who wouldn't want that? The teams getting the byes get to rest up, but they don't get an extra week prep time for the team they're playing because they don't know which of the two teams it will be. Some teams during the season come in after having a week off and play the best football they've played all year (i.e. Alabama), some come and play like they're playing the season opener (i.e. LSU). Barring injuries, I think it would be much better to build momentum by playing in the first round. Just my opinion.

I agree Cliff. The place to be (Not knowing the opponents) is in the 5-8 position. You get to keep your rhythm. Now once the the actual bracket comes out, obviously some slots will be better than others as far as a more favorable route to the final. But the 5-8 position get to host, and get to keep playing so they dont lose their momentum.

You do bring up an intriguing thought though.....with the one extra game, there is an added opportunity for injury. But everyone has to deal with injury this time of year. That is how coaches need to sell a roster slot to someone that thinks they could probably start at another school, and want to transfer. Coaches need to sell that the odds are better than 50% that a 2nd stringer will be a starter before the season's end, and will definitely get significant PT down the stretch and into the playoffs. Depth is needed to make championship runs, and with the portal rules, depth is the hardest part of the roster to build.