Predicting the CFP Poll and Bracket

[umrebelfan69]

After the chaos of last weekend and then after reading the actual rules of how the bracket lays out. It is an almost impossible task to predict this CFP bracket/Poll

First thing that I realized is that no matter if you are ranked #2, you are not guaranteed to #2 Seed in the bracket. Just think about last week for an example. Ohio State is ranked 2nd, but Oregon is ranked #1. So for now, dont think about what happens with the championship game, but in that scenario, Oregon would have that top seeded spot in the bracket, and Ohio State would be in the group of 8, Most likely seeded. 5th, which is the highest seed that the group of 8 could get.

So. I think the only way I can get anywhere near close is to just give my prediction of what the CFP poll will look like. Then I will fill in a makeshift bracket, based solely on how everyone is sitting now (If what I predict was correct). I am going to show through the 14th position for bracketing purposes.

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Tennessee
6. Indiana
7. BYU
8. Notre Dame
9. Alabama
10. Boise State
11. Ole Miss
12. SMU
13. Georgia
14. Miami

So, that is how I predict it will look Tuesday night.....now if you go by my record.....You can almost guarantee it will look nothing like that, but this is what message boards are for. Fans blogging and opining on this sport we love.

If what I have predicted comes to pass, the bracket could look something like this......Just for this week of course

The numbers beside the boxes are the seeds, and the numbers in parenthesis are their CFP Poll Ranking.
So, as you can see, Oregon has the top seed and first round bye due to being the top ranked Conference Champion (On Paper only seeing as how its not been played yet). Ohio State would get pushed to the highest ranked group of 8 slot which is the #5 seed. Texas being the next highest conference champion (Again paper only), they get the #2 seed despite being ranked 3rd. Here is where it gets a bit tricky, BYU is projected to be the Big 12 champion, They would be seeded 3rd, and since there is no way to truly put an ACC team in the top 4 seeds, I predict the committee will fill the 4th seed position with Independent and media darling Notre Dame.

So to round out the group of 8, The 6th seed goes to the next highest ranking, which is #4 Penn State, Tennessee gets the 7th seed, and Indiana gets the last of the hosting seeds at the #8 seed.

Rounding out the top 12 would be #9 Alabama playing the 8th seed Indiana. The 10th ranked and seeded Boise State Broncos would travel to Knoxville to play the Vols. #11 Ole Miss travels to Happy Valley to take on Penn State, a rematch of last years Peach Bowl matchup. And then lastly, Ohio State plays host to the 12th Seeded Miami Hurricanes.

So as you can see, the 14th CFP Poll team, Miami, actually makes the field. The reason is that they will be the projected ACC Champion. And the rules of the CFP Bracket states that if a conference champion is ranked outside of the top 12, they will get the 12th seed in the bracket. So that puts Miami in over a higher ranked Georgia.

Of course this is all just me goofing around today with different scenarios. The Committee may not drop Georgia out, They may not allow Ole Miss to jump SMU, however I feel that Ole Miss surpasses SMU on the eye test, and SMU being idle last week, I expect them to weight the dominant Ole Miss win over the #3 team over SMU, and move them in...... but of course that could just be me looking at the playoff through red-&-blue glasses.

What do yall predict for tomorrow nights 2nd installment of the CFP Poll?

 

[umrebelfan69]

Lets go a little further. Would love to get @GrizzlyBuck13 to weigh in here. As I read the Big 10 championship game criteria today, if i have it right, The top 2 teams record wise plays in the championship game.

So, I honestly think Ohio State will expose Indiana in a couple of weeks. Assuming no problems beating Northwestern this weekend and then Michigan on the 30th. The Big 10 championship game should be the rematch of Oregon/Ohio State. Win that one, and no doubt that Ohio State will take over the #1 spot, but lose it, and this bracket can get really out of whack.

Looking at the ACC at this moment, I see a pretty straight shot for SMU to match up against Miami in their CG. If SMU wins, they could take over that 4th seed as a conference champ. If Miami wins, they may get it, but damn, they lost this last weekend to an unranked Georgia Tech, and that has got to hurt those chances.

The SEC has 3 teams with only 1 conference loss. Two of which being their only loss. A&M has a second out of conference loss. If A&M were to be able to upset Texas on the 30th, That would put aTm and Tennessee into the SECCG, wherein if aTm pulled that one out..... The whole bracket falls to shit, especially for the SEC.

All fun and games, but just with me trying to research for this post..... I am glad I am not on that committee

 

[umrebelfan69]

Just to show you how a different set of eyes can see it. This is a picture of Andy Staples' projected bracket. Andy gets paid to talk about sports so I will defer to his knowlege.

 

[GrizzlyBuck13]

Lets go a little further. Would love to get @GrizzlyBuck13 to weigh in here. As I read the Big 10 championship game criteria today, if i have it right, The top 2 teams record wise plays in the championship game.

So, I honestly think Ohio State will expose Indiana in a couple of weeks. Assuming no problems beating Northwestern this weekend and then Michigan on the 30th. The Big 10 championship game should be the rematch of Oregon/Ohio State. Win that one, and no doubt that Ohio State will take over the #1 spot, but lose it, and this bracket can get really out of whack.

Looking at the ACC at this moment, I see a pretty straight shot for SMU to match up against Miami in their CG. If SMU wins, they could take over that 4th seed as a conference champ. If Miami wins, they may get it, but damn, they lost this last weekend to an unranked Georgia Tech, and that has got to hurt those chances.

The SEC has 3 teams with only 1 conference loss. Two of which being their only loss. A&M has a second out of conference loss. If A&M were to be able to upset Texas on the 30th, That would put aTm and Tennessee into the SECCG, wherein if aTm pulled that one out..... The whole bracket falls to shit, especially for the SEC.

All fun and games, but just with me trying to research for this post..... I am glad I am not on that committee

Yeah, I’m not quite a fan of the new big ten format. I’d be good with it if every team played everyone, but without that, the tie breaker can get messy and possibly not favor the most deserving team. I think they need to do 2 divisions and go back to an East vs West Champ game. Especially since the west is stronger now with a couple of the PAC 12 additions.

 

[umrebelfan69]

Yeah, I’m not quite a fan of the new big ten format. I’d be good with it if every team played everyone, but without that, the tie breaker can get messy and possibly not favor the most deserving team. I think they need to do 2 divisions and go back to an East vs West Champ game. Especially since the west is stronger now with a couple of the PAC 12 additions.

I think yall beat Indiana and then get the rematch against Oregon. I promise that Oregon fans don’t want to see that. Very hard for any team to beat another twice in the same year. It happens, but not often.

 

[umrebelfan69]

Lets see how I did

Oregon

Ohio State

Texas

Penn State

Indiana

BYU

Tennessee

Notre Dame

Miami

Alabama

Mississippi

Georgia

Boise State

SMU

[td]

1​

[/td][td]

[/td]​

[td]

10-0​

[/td]​

[td]

2​

[/td][td]

[/td]​

[td]

8-1​

[/td]​

[td]

3​

[/td][td]

[/td]​

[td]

8-1​

[/td]​

[td]

4​

[/td][td]

[/td]​

[td]

8-1​

[/td]​

[td]

5​

[/td][td]

[/td]​

[td]

10-0​

[/td]​

[td]

6​

[/td][td]

[/td]​

[td]

9-0​

[/td]​

[td]

7​

[/td][td]

[/td]​

[td]

8-1​

[/td]​

[td]

8​

[/td][td]

[/td]​

[td]

8-1​

[/td]​

[td]

9​

[/td][td]

[/td]​

[td]

9-1​

[/td]​

[td]

10​

[/td][td]

[/td]​

[td]

7-2​

[/td]​

[td]

11​

[/td][td]

[/td]​

[td]

8-2​

[/td]​

[td]

12​

[/td][td]

[/td]​

[td]

7-2​

[/td]​

[td]

13​

[/td][td]

[/td]​

[td]

8-1​

[/td]​

[td]

14​

[/td][td]

[/td]​

[td]

8-1​

[/td]​

Here are mine again

1. Oregon - Hit
2. Ohio State - Hit
3. Texas - Hit
4. Penn State - Hit
5. Tennessee - Miss
6. Indiana - Miss
7. BYU - Miss
8. Notre Dame - Hit
9. Alabama - Miss
10. Boise State - Miss
11. Ole Miss - Hit
12. SMU - Miss
13. Georgia - Miss
14. Miami - Miss

So, 6 out of 14....Still not good for me. Lets see how my bracket prediction looked though.
So I misunderstood again how the top 4 seeds are given out. Notre Dame is not eligible for that since they are independent in football. So I got the top 3 seeds correct with Oregon(1), Texas(2), and BYU(3). However even though Miami lost to an unranked Georgia Tech, and dropped to 9th in the rankings (More on that later), Since they are the projected ACC champion, they will be awarded the 4th seed.

On to the group of 8. I got the 5 seed correct with Ohio State, but since I got the Group of 5 At large bid wrong, the 12th see will be Boise State. Even though I didn't get the rankings right, I did luck into getting the seeding of Penn State right, and thus I also got the 6th vs 11th seed game correct as that puts Penn State vs Ole Miss and a rematch of last year's Peach Bowl. That is the only matchup I got right in the bracket. So here is the round out. The #7 seeded Indiana Hoosiers, draw the 10th seed Alabama. And lastly the 8th seed Tennessee takes on the 9th seed Notre Dame.

Even though I suck as a prognosticator of the bracket and polls, one thing is for certain. With each and every passing week, the picture is getting clearer. Not only are teams narrowing down the choices, but I am also becoming more and more familiar with the rules of the CFP Poll/Bracket. I think week 3 will be my magic number.