umrebelfan69
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The last of my deep dives into the other conferences is on the ACC. The ACC doesn't have divisional play anymore, so just like the others, they will choose the 2 teams with the highest in-conference winning percentage, with certain tie breaking criteria in place.
As of now, SMU is 8 - 1 and undefeated in conference play, so they are in the drivers seat to be in the championship game. Their lone loss on the season was to the projected Big 12 champion BYU. They have one win over a team that is ranked at this time against #22 Louisville. Their next best win IMO would be against Pitt who has been ranked for most of the season, but has recently hit a skid which has knocked them out of the polls. SMU's remaining schedule is Boston College (5-4 / 2-3) today, Virginia (5-4 / 3-3) next week, and closing out the season with California (5-4 / 1-4). Barring some sort of melt down, the Mustangs should be the 1 seed for the ACC Championship game
Next up is Clemson sitting at 7-2 overall and 6-1 in ACC play. Clemson has had a....hard to figure out season. They have no wins over currently ranked teams and their losses came in the opener against Georgia, and the current #22 team in the country, Louisville. As an aside, Clemson is currently ranked 5 places higher than Louisville at #17. Their remaining schedule is Pitt, the Citadel, and South Carolina. Well I definitely think they will lose their season ending game against SC, but as far as the ACC is concerned, They should win the game against Pitt today. But as Corso says, Not So Fast...... Remembrer, Pitt has spent a lot of time this season as a ranked team. And while they have recently been on a losing streak, they certainly pose a legit threat to Clemson. So.....again.... Clemson SHOULD be able to win this game, the potential for a loss is at least at the 49% range. For Clemson to reach the championship game, they need some help. They need Miami to lose.
That brings me to Miami, the current #3 team in the ACC. They are the #3 seed in the conference simply for having played 1 less conference game than Clemson. They sit at 9-1 / 5-1. They only have one win over a currently ranked team, #22 Louisville, and their loss came just last weekend at the hands of the UNRANKED Georgia Tech Yellowjackets. This inexplicable loss dropped the Canes down to the #9th ranked team in the CFP, however they are still projected as the ACC champ so that has them projected as the 4 seed in the playoff bracket. Miami's remaining schedule is Wake Forest and Syracuse. Miami should take care of that and will end up being the #2 seed in the championship game. They have not played Clemson this season, but they will have the higher winning percentage, and will therefore win the tie breaking criteria.
Louisville is mathematically still in, but they need some miracles to help them get in. They need 2 of the teams out of the 3 ahead of them to lose all of their remaining games. That aint happening, so I am not wasting any more time on trying to analyze it.
In the end. I think the ACC championship game will be SMU versus Miami. Clemson's need of Miami losing, is just too much as I do not think Wake or Syracuse can beat Miami. Obviously, the CFP committee thinks Miami will win that game, but looking at these resumes, SMU and Miami look very similar. Both have their only ranked win over Louisville (#22), and SMU has a win over Pitt as well. So for now, I am unwilling to pick a winner in the ACC Championship game, but for the purpose of closing out this conference dig series, I will side with the CFP committee and say its Miami. Barring some other weird happenings, the ACC Champion just may be the only representative in the playoff bracket for the ACC. However with a little bit of movement ahead, Clemson can hold onto a little hope at getting in. That is just an opinion, as I have not put pen to paper to look at the numbers, but I think a 10-2 Clemson will get a spot if one is available. Lets just say that I think that Clemson should be big Boise State fans.
I will not do a deep dive into the Group of 5 conferences. Just way more things to analyze for that than I am willing to do, but for the sake of this writing, lets say that Boise State is the G5 representative in the playoff field. The rules of the CFP Bracket are that a G5 rep gets the 12th seed unless they are ranked higher than 12th in the poll. So as the bracket looked this week, although Boise was ranked 13th, they were seeded 12th in the bracket as the G5 rep. So my thoughts above on Clemson being big time Boise fans. Boise doesnt have any really challenging games ahead of them, but lets say they win out and possibly throw in some style points, they can conceivably move up in the polls to around the 11th or 10th position. If so, the 12th seed could be awarded to a 10-2 Clemson. If that were to happen, it would be an example of Clemson benefitting from NOT being in their conference championship game.
As of now, SMU is 8 - 1 and undefeated in conference play, so they are in the drivers seat to be in the championship game. Their lone loss on the season was to the projected Big 12 champion BYU. They have one win over a team that is ranked at this time against #22 Louisville. Their next best win IMO would be against Pitt who has been ranked for most of the season, but has recently hit a skid which has knocked them out of the polls. SMU's remaining schedule is Boston College (5-4 / 2-3) today, Virginia (5-4 / 3-3) next week, and closing out the season with California (5-4 / 1-4). Barring some sort of melt down, the Mustangs should be the 1 seed for the ACC Championship game
Next up is Clemson sitting at 7-2 overall and 6-1 in ACC play. Clemson has had a....hard to figure out season. They have no wins over currently ranked teams and their losses came in the opener against Georgia, and the current #22 team in the country, Louisville. As an aside, Clemson is currently ranked 5 places higher than Louisville at #17. Their remaining schedule is Pitt, the Citadel, and South Carolina. Well I definitely think they will lose their season ending game against SC, but as far as the ACC is concerned, They should win the game against Pitt today. But as Corso says, Not So Fast...... Remembrer, Pitt has spent a lot of time this season as a ranked team. And while they have recently been on a losing streak, they certainly pose a legit threat to Clemson. So.....again.... Clemson SHOULD be able to win this game, the potential for a loss is at least at the 49% range. For Clemson to reach the championship game, they need some help. They need Miami to lose.
That brings me to Miami, the current #3 team in the ACC. They are the #3 seed in the conference simply for having played 1 less conference game than Clemson. They sit at 9-1 / 5-1. They only have one win over a currently ranked team, #22 Louisville, and their loss came just last weekend at the hands of the UNRANKED Georgia Tech Yellowjackets. This inexplicable loss dropped the Canes down to the #9th ranked team in the CFP, however they are still projected as the ACC champ so that has them projected as the 4 seed in the playoff bracket. Miami's remaining schedule is Wake Forest and Syracuse. Miami should take care of that and will end up being the #2 seed in the championship game. They have not played Clemson this season, but they will have the higher winning percentage, and will therefore win the tie breaking criteria.
Louisville is mathematically still in, but they need some miracles to help them get in. They need 2 of the teams out of the 3 ahead of them to lose all of their remaining games. That aint happening, so I am not wasting any more time on trying to analyze it.
In the end. I think the ACC championship game will be SMU versus Miami. Clemson's need of Miami losing, is just too much as I do not think Wake or Syracuse can beat Miami. Obviously, the CFP committee thinks Miami will win that game, but looking at these resumes, SMU and Miami look very similar. Both have their only ranked win over Louisville (#22), and SMU has a win over Pitt as well. So for now, I am unwilling to pick a winner in the ACC Championship game, but for the purpose of closing out this conference dig series, I will side with the CFP committee and say its Miami. Barring some other weird happenings, the ACC Champion just may be the only representative in the playoff bracket for the ACC. However with a little bit of movement ahead, Clemson can hold onto a little hope at getting in. That is just an opinion, as I have not put pen to paper to look at the numbers, but I think a 10-2 Clemson will get a spot if one is available. Lets just say that I think that Clemson should be big Boise State fans.
I will not do a deep dive into the Group of 5 conferences. Just way more things to analyze for that than I am willing to do, but for the sake of this writing, lets say that Boise State is the G5 representative in the playoff field. The rules of the CFP Bracket are that a G5 rep gets the 12th seed unless they are ranked higher than 12th in the poll. So as the bracket looked this week, although Boise was ranked 13th, they were seeded 12th in the bracket as the G5 rep. So my thoughts above on Clemson being big time Boise fans. Boise doesnt have any really challenging games ahead of them, but lets say they win out and possibly throw in some style points, they can conceivably move up in the polls to around the 11th or 10th position. If so, the 12th seed could be awarded to a 10-2 Clemson. If that were to happen, it would be an example of Clemson benefitting from NOT being in their conference championship game.
